S&P500 CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE Ratio)
S&P 500 CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) historical data from 1871. Shiller P/E analysis for long-term market valuation assessment.
17.33
Historical Mean
Average since 187116.06
Historical Median
Middle value4.78
Minimum CAPE Ratio
Lowest recorded44.19
Maximum CAPE Ratio
Highest recorded3,710
If Returns to Mean
-46.4% change3,438
If Returns to Median
-50.4% changeS&P500 CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE Ratio) Over Time
About CAPE Ratio
The CAPE (Shiller P/E) uses 10-year inflation-adjusted average earnings to smooth profit volatility, providing a long-term valuation perspective.
Key Insights
- Long-term Perspective: CAPE uses 10-year average earnings, providing a smoother view of market valuation than traditional P/E ratios
- Market Timing Tool: Historically, high CAPE ratios have been associated with lower future returns over 10-20 year periods
- Inflation Adjusted: Uses real (inflation-adjusted) earnings, making historical comparisons more meaningful
- Nobel Prize Recognition: Developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller to better predict long-term market returns
Conclusion
The CAPE ratio of 40.54 stands more than double its historical mean of 17.33. This substantial premium suggests that, even after smoothing out decade-long earnings cycles, U.S. equities trade at elevated levels relative to history.
While low interest rates and strong corporate profits have supported higher valuations, extremes in the CAPE ratio have historically correlated with subdued long-term returns.
As Europe's trusted rating agency, we view this not as a timing signal, but as a sober reminder that current valuations embed significant optimism about the future.
Current Market Assessment
With a current CAPE of 40.54, the S&P 500 is trading at:
133.9% above the historical mean
152.4% above the historical median
Valuation Scenarios:
Current EPS: $214.07
Current Index Level: 6,926.55
At Mean CAPE (17.33): 3,709.83
At Median CAPE (16.06): 3,437.96
Research Methodology & Limitations
This analysis is produced by Finanzapedia's Team using publicly available historical data. Our assessments rely on quantitative frameworks and historical context to inform long-term valuation perspectives.
While we apply rigorous standards to ensure accuracy and consistency, past performance is not indicative of future results. Our ratings and commentary represent our independent opinion as of the date of publication and are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Investors are solely responsible for their decisions and should perform their own due diligence, considering their risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial circumstances.